The U.S. Election Assistance Commission conducts the Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) following every federal midterm and general election. The survey goes out to election officials across the nation and asks them to report on questions around their administration of federal elections.

The charts below explore the 2018 EAVS data around vote by mail (VBM) use and ballot rejection rates. As we explore ways to secure the vote during the COVID-19 pandemic, these data give us insight into how individual states are currently using VBM and where advocacy might be beneficial.

While these data can be useful, the survey is optional so data are incomplete. There are internal inconsistencies in the data that prevent us from piecing together a complete picture. VBM data are particularly hurt by this issue. According to the data, anywhere from 430,000 to 2.5 million VBM ballots were rejected. Because of this issue, when we refer to rejection data, we mostly look to rates and trends. Finally, data do not allow us to look for potential disparate impact in our communities of interest although there is a significant body of research indicating that VBM use and rates of rejection vary across different racial groups, ages, income brackets, and physical abilities. Additionally, there are areas so thinly populated that the United States Postal Service does not deliver mail. Voters in these areas, shown in red below, will face unique challenges for VBM administration.

National Numbers

The flow chart below shows how ballots move through federal election administration channels with a specific focus on VBM. It begins with the number of registered voters and follows the numbers through the VBM process including how many ballots were sent, collected, lost, and how many were eventually counted or rejected. Notably, we focus on rejected VBM ballots in three main categories including signature issues, deadline issues, and all other issues. We explore the data further with this structure in mind.

Nationally, there were close to 212 million registered voters in the 2018. Americans cast 119 million votes and 42.5 million were by mail. The chart below shows the disposition of those 42.5 million VBM ballots. The number of VBM ballots sent to voters and the number of ballots cast doesn’t equal the number of counted votes. We get to that later. Here we just show what happened to the ballot. First, 30 million were returned by voters to the election officials. Another 10.5 million VBM ballots, shown as Status Unknown, never made it back to the election offices. The other categories shown account for 1.8 million (4%) ballots.

Missing the deadline was the largest single reason for VBM ballot rejection, accounting for 29% of rejected ballots. Each locality has different rules for ballot deadlines but all are complicated by idiosyncrasies in the US Postal System like post marks, delivery routes, and processing times.

Signature issues surpass deadline rejections if we look at all four signature issues together: no voter signature, no witness signature, no election official signature, and signature mismatch issues. Together, the ballots rejected for signature issues total 32% with signature mismatch and missing voter signature being the two predominant issues. The remaining rejection reasons account for 39% of all rejected ballots.

The next series of charts looks at VBM rejection reasons by state. If a state is not represented, it either reported zero rejections or did not answer the survey question. First we examine, by state, VBM ballot dispositions and then we move to VBM rejections.

Top 3 Reasons

Totals by State - VBM Ballot Dispositions

Total VBM by state, shown here, gives an idea of VBM in the 2018 cycle. Charts in this section are interactive. Scroll over to see exact numbers.

Again, most ballots that are sent to voters are returned, even if not counted. Here we show returned ballots by state.

The second largest category of VBM ballot dispositions is ‘Status Unknown’ which means a ballot was sent to the voter but the ballot never made it back to the election offices.

Totals by State - VBM Ballot Counted and Rejected

Of the ballots returned, most get counted. Here we look at counted VBM ballots by state.

As shown below, many VBM ballots get rejected. We show the raw number and percentage for the remaining charts.

Rejected for Deadline

Ballots rejected due to deadlines is a single category in EAVS and is shown below.

Rejected for Signature Issues

Here we group VBM ballots rejected for signature issues which includes ballots with no voter signature, no witness signature, no election official signature, or a signature mismatch issue.

Rejected for All Other Reasons

Finally, the charts below show VBM rejected for other reasons.

Prepared by All Voting is Local - March, 2020

Source: U.S. Election Assistance Commission. (2019, July). 2018 Election Administration and Voting Survey Dataset. Retrieved from https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/datasets-codebooks-and-surveys.